Larry Kudlow: U.S. exports to China to double under 'Phase One' deal

(Reuters) WASHINGTON - investing.com

U.S. exports to China will double under the so-called Phase One trade deal reached between Washington and Beijing, a top White House adviser said on Monday.

"They're ... going to double our exports to China," National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told Fox News Channel.

Under the trade agreement announced last week, Washington will reduce some tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for Chinese purchases of agricultural, manufactured and energy products increasing by about $20 billion over the next two years.

While U.S. officials have touted the deal, Chinese officials have been more cautious, emphasizing that the trade dispute has not been completely settled.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said negotiations on a "Phase Two" trade deal between the two economic giants would start immediately.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert said that a date for senior U.S. and Chinese officials' signing of the accord has not yet been determined.

Related Posts:

➤ Trade War News: China Claims Trade Optimism, Requests Sanctions Against U.S.

Trading war alert: Oil Tumbles as US Fuel Stocks Spike.

The buildup in stocks of U.S. gasoline and other fuels isn’t slowing, to the dismay of oil bulls. Neither is there word coming on whether China will avert new U.S. tariffs by Sunday.

Oil prices fell Wednesday following the latest report on U.S. supplies that showed an unexpected rise in crude inventories and very strong refining activity that produced a huge climb in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, settled down 48 cents, or 0.9%, at $58.76 per barrel.

U.K. Brent, the global oil benchmark, closed the regular New York trading session down 62 cents, or 1%, at $63.72.

Crude inventories rose by 822,000 for the week ended Dec. 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. The market was looking for a drawdown of 2.76 million barrels, according to analysts’ forecasts compiled by Investing.com.

Gasoline inventories soared by 5.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a rise of about 2.5 million barrels. That was the largest weekly build in gasoline since January, according to EIA records.

Distillate inventories, meanwhile, climbed by 4.1 million barrels, versus forecasts for a build of about 1.6 million barrels.

“It appears once again that refiners are turning out products at a frenetic pace that the market probably doesn’t need and that explains the continuous builds in gasoline and distillates that we’re having,” Investing.com analyst Barani Krishnan said.

“Refinery runs are continuing at over 90% of standing capacity,” Krishnan added. “The drawdown of nearly 3.5 million barrels at the Cushing Oklahoma delivery point for WTI clearly shows the blistering pace of refining that’s going on.”

Imports ticked up for the week to nearly 7 million barrels.

“The takeaway for oil bulls would be the first dip in production for a long time, which the EIA estimates is down to 12.8 million bpd from a previous 12.9 million,” Krishnan said. “Also, exports of crude got a huge boost of 265,000 bpd last week.”

Also weighing on oil was the U.S.-China trade wrangle and how the Trump administration would proceed come Sunday, the deadline for the imposition of tariffs on another $156 billion worth of Chinese goods.

"The 500-pound gorilla in the trading room is whether a deal can be reached with China,” Tariq Zahir, founder of New York oil-focused fund Tyche Capital Advisors, said.

“If we do not see a deal reached, or minimally a delay in imposing new tariffs, we could see a substantial risk-off posture being taken in all asset classes across the board. Imposing the new tariffs, in our opinion, would lead to a risk off across everywhere."

Related Posts:

➤ Aramco Stock Soars Limit Up In Debut with value $1.7 trillion.

Aramco Stock Soars Limit Up In Debut with value $1.7 trillion.

by Getty image

The giant Saudi Aramco-oil company- is now the highest value of a company all over the world. With a value $1.7 trillion, Aramco exceeds Apple and Microsoft in the net value.

Saudi Arabia's oil company Aramco soared 10% limit up on its first day of trading, reaching a valuation of $1.88 trillion, higher than any other publicly traded company in the world. This means that pricing its IPO at $1.7 trillion.

The record valuation reflects an oversubscribed book of mostly local investors who bought shares on the Saudi Tadawul stock exchange after they were forced by Riyadh to pump the stock. 

Aramco only sold a tiny 1.5% sliver in the company, meaning that the kingdom and Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) could easily manipulate the price with such a small fraction of the stock public. Aramco listed on the Tadawul exchange because of other international exchanges and their investors found it hard to value the oil company near the $2 trillion levels. 

"They have had to launch the IPO on their own stock exchange as the valuation was unlikely to be achieved elsewhere," said John Colley, associate dean at Warwick Business School in the U.K, who spoke with Reuters.

 Colley said the IPO pump is likely buyers affiliated with the kingdom.   Aramco sold .50% of its shares to individual retail investors, many of whom were Saudi nationals, financially incentivized by the kingdom. The remaining 1% were domestic institutional investors and other financial institutions from surrounding countries. 

Reuters noted that Aramco would be offering a dividend of at least $75 billion in 2020 to entice investors to hold. Also, investors who hold for more than six months could be rewarded with up to 100 bonus shares. 

Saudi Arabia's central bank doubled leverage for retail investors ahead of the IPO. 

State investment funds, like Public Pension Agency and PIF's Sanabil Investments unit, are among domestic institutions who were buying shares in the open market, reported Financial Times, adding that wealthy Saudi families were ordered by the kingdom to purchase stock.

As the FT reported ahead of the IPO, Saudi Arabia was "persuading" local institutions and wealthy families to buy shares in Saudi Aramco after its initial public offering, as part of a plan to drive up the stock price: the focus was to reach company’s $2t targeted valuation, and as of this morning, the company is more than halfway there from $1.7 trillion.

"Aramco should easily get to the $2 trillion valuation as soon as tomorrow; there is plenty of appetite for it," Marie Salem, the head of institutions at Daman Securities in Dubai, told Bloomberg.

 The Aramco IPO proceeds ($25.6 billion) will be used by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to fund his Vision 2030 initiative and transform the Saudi economy away from oil and gas. 

Monica Malik, the chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Reuters while Ice Brent Crude futures trade around $63-$64, the kingdom needs about $87 per barrel to balance its budget.

Source: zerohedge news

Most Important Forex Signals 2019: Buy&Sell (part2)

In this topic we will discuss the second part of Buy&Sell fore signals.

Related:  Forex Signals 2019: Buy&Sell (Part1)

Now that we’ve looked at the three candlestick patterns I use, let’s dive into the three chart patterns. These include the head and shoulders, channels and wedges.

The good news is that we don’t have to wait months or years to trade. With dozens of currency pairs at our disposal, there’s almost always something to do.

Chart Pattern Buy & Sell Signals

Head and shoulders

When it comes to profitability, the head and shoulders pattern is at the top of the list. It typically forms after an extended move up and signals exhaustion from buyers.

The inverse head and shoulders pattern also represents a potential reversal but does so after an extended move down and signals exhaustion from sellers.

The reason I say these formations can be highly profitable is that they often provide several hundred pips of profit if traded successfully.

Note that the head and shoulders also comes with what’s called a measured objective. This is a potential profit target that’s found using the height of the structure.

Channels (ascending and descending)

Channels occur more often than most traders probably realize. They are particularly plentiful after an impulsive move up or down. The channels that form in this manner are known as bull and bear flags.

If you’ve followed me for a while, you’ve no doubt seen me comment on either an ascending or descending channel. In fact, I bet not a single week goes by where I don’t use a channel to outline the price action on a given chart.

They offer an excellent way to identify and outline periods of consolidation which can provide an opportunity to play the subsequent breakout.

Note how the ascending channel above began forming after an extended move lower

Wedges (narrowing and broadening)

Like channels, wedges usually represent consolidation. However, what sets them apart is their terminal nature. In other words, a narrowing wedge has a definitive end point whereas a channel does not.

The two charts below show the difference between a narrowing wedge and a broadening wedge.

Note how unlike the narrowing wedge in the first chart, the price action in a broadening formation “fans out” as time passes.

Most Important Forex Signals 2019: Buy&Sell (Part1)

Trade is a combination of two simple processes (Buy-Sell). Forex is a type of trade, so Forex= Buy+Sell.

When to buy and when to sell is the core of a successful Forex trading operations.

Just about everything I do in the Forex market revolves around six buy and sell signals.

Three are candlestick patterns while the other three are chart patterns such as the head and shoulders.

You probably know I like to keep things simple. But simple doesn’t mean unreliable or unprofitable.

In fact, the simple buy and sell setups below are some of the most profitable patterns I’ve come across after more than a decade of trading.

There are many patterns of buy and sell signals. In this topic we will  discuss the most important signals.

Candlestick Buy & Sell Signals

There are three types of candlestick patterns I look for during a trading week. They are the pin bar, engulfing bar and inside bar. While the pin bar can be traded on the 4-hour and daily time frames, both the engulfing and inside bars are most effective on the daily time frame and higher. If you use them on any time frame lower than the daily you open yourself up to false positives.

Note how after closing below a key level, the pair formed a bearish pin bar after retesting the area as new resistance.

Pin bar

For those who have followed me for a while now, it will come as no surprise to hear that my favorite candlestick pattern is the pin bar. These candles are characterized by long upper or lower wicks and represent a rejection of support or resistance.

That last sentence is paramount to the effectiveness of the pin bar pattern. Without having a key support or resistance area near the candlestick, the formation is rather meaningless.

Engulfing bar

The engulfing bar is a reversal pattern that can often signal exhaustion from buyers or sellers. As the name implies, it’s a candle that completely engulfs the previous one.

One critical rule of using this signal is only to pay attention to the engulfing patterns that develop on the daily chart and above. Any signal on the  charts is unreliable in the sense that it could be a false positive.

Another important point is that the candlestick pattern must form at a swing high or low. Otherwise, it won’t signal the necessary exhaustion from bulls or bears that make it an effective reversal signal.

Note that the candle formed at a swing high and at a resistance level that had been in place for several months.

Inside bar

When I began trading with price action in 2010, I started with the pin bar and inside bar candlestick patterns. I figured I would learn the two signals inside and out before considering other more advanced patterns.

It was a good move. I always advocate sticking with one or two price patterns in the beginning before expanding your options. The fewer things you have to learn the easier it is to become proficient by honing in on the subject at hand.

But over the years I’ve moved away from trading the inside bar, at least to some degree. I still find one here and there that catches my attention, but for the most part, I don’t trade it.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t a profitable signal. It just means that it doesn’t suit my style as much as the other signals in this post.

With that said, for someone searching for a good trend trading signal, the inside bar is one of the best in my opinion. The key, however, is to make sure you stick to the daily time frame. Anything lower than that and you’ll end up with too many false positives.

The next topic will discuss the second part of Buy&Sell fore signals. It will be about Chart Pattern Buy & Sell Signals

Forex News: Dollar Surges Against Euro ($1.105)

Unstable Forex market due to Trading war and Brexit situation. It's an unpredictable period in the world economy.

Investing.com reported that Dollar Surges Against Euro ($1.105)

The U.S. dollar rallied on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs gains last month reaffirmed beliefs that the economy remained on solid footing.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.35% to 97.75.

The U.S. created 266,000 jobs last month, topping economists' forecast of 186,000.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% and wage growth slipped to 0.2% in November, lower than expectations of 0.3%.

Following the stronger-than-expected jobs report, TD economists said the Federal Reserve can sit comfortably on the sidelines after cutting rates three times this year.

"As long as international risks do not intensify and hurt confidence domestically, the American economy will remain in expansion, supported by a healthy consumer," the firm added.

The euro, which was already under pressure amid weaker German data, fell 0.45% against the greenback to $1.105.

USD/JPY fell 0.12% to Y108.62, while USD/CAD jumped 0.67% to C$1.326, with the latter coming under pressure following a weaker-than-expected Canadian jobs report.

The plunge in the loonie comes amid reports that Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is set to step down just days ahead of the central bank's interest-rate decision.

GBP/USD slipped 0.23% to $1.312, giving up some of its gains earlier this week, when the pair hit seven-month highs on bets that the Conservative party in the U.K., led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, would likely win a majority of the seats in the General Election.

With a Tory majority, Boris Johnson will likely be able to get his Brexit deal approved, ending the current parliamentary deadlock on Brexit, which has weighed on economic activity.

Bitcoin Forecast for 2020. Bitcoin price may reach ($30,000)

Bitcoin is reaching the end of the year very close to multi-month lows. Yet there are good reasons to expect the price of Bitcoin to begin a recovery from a low of around $5,000 to $6,000 and rise over 2020 to end the year between $15,000 and $17,000. Financial experts predict that the year 2021 is likely to see Bitcoin reach $30,000.

Investors and traders fret over price forecasts concerning Bitcoin, as the price of the digital asset has been very unstable and extremely challenging to forecast. After a year of market pullback in 2018, Bitcoin has staged a few bullish runs in 2019, followed by a bear run. In a bid to predict the price of Bitcoin using technical and fundamental analysis, I will make a full use of the repetitive nature of Bitcoin’s historical patterns which are mostly reflections of impending events and buyers’ behavior to make a Bitcoin price prediction for 2020.

Bitcoin in 2019

In June 2019, Bitcoin recorded its yearly high after hitting close to $14,000. Then, Bitcoin went into a free fall as the supply driven by high price per coin overpowered the purchasing power of buyers. The descent of the Bitcoin price was saved by a support point created by the buyers’ response to the fall in price, holding the price above about $10,000 until September, when the price began to fall again lower than $8000.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Short and Medium Terms

Before going further, it is important to say that the Bitcoin price will make a further fall in the short term as a key support line has recently been broken, and unless the price is held by a concentration of buyers further down the price curve, the price may touch close to $6,500 in the short term if the $7,000 support line is broken, make a rebound into the $7,500 and $8,000 price zone and then head back above $10,000 over the medium term. After this, I expect the price will consolidate for a while before going on to break its all-time high in 2021 after the Bitcoin halving 2020 event which will occur in May 2020. The reasoning for these predictions will be explained below.

In the above price chart, Bitcoin found a key support point of $10,100 after it took a strong fall from its yearly high. On 22nd August 2019, the price pegged at a support point of $10,100 after failing to break the resistance at $10,300. The price then fell to peg at $10,100 once again on 25th August, took a rebound to a little above its resistance point and pegged at its support point again on 28th August. At this point, the supply had overpowered the demand causing Bitcoin to break its support point to fall as low as $9,400 on 29th August. At that price, buyers bought more of the asset to send the price above its previous point to trade around $10,800 on 6th September 2019. Bitcoin found another key support point at $7800 on 30th September, 7th October, and 24th October as it struggled to surpass its resistance price of $8,300. Bitcoin then rose sharply to break this resistance, trading at $9,600 on 28th October 2019, and between then and 8th November 2019, it found a support point at $9,200. This support point was broken, as was the round number of $8000. The price continued to move lower, and at the time of writing, the low for 2019 has been made earlier in the week just above $6,500.

In 2018, after Bitcoin had recorded its all-time high, the Chinese government began a massive crackdown on cryptocurrency exchanges, causing speculations of price fall in the media, and in return, forcing buyers to leave the market. This affected the price massively to take its value down to as low as almost $3,000.

Before the end of 2019, the price of Bitcoin will fall even lower, beyond $6,500, due to another crackdown having been launched by China, unless a stronger determinant like the bullish speculation surrounding the Bitcoin 2020 halving event overpowers this fear.

The price chart signifies a bullish move is likely in the first quarter of 2020, after support is found somewhere between $5,000 and $6,000.The blue line represents market capitalization while the green line represents price.

Based on the previous price data, the Bitcoin price is on the verge of staging its first bull run before the event in 2020, and this may possibly start sometime in late December 2019 or early January 2020. The Bitcoin price should slowly rise back into the $10,000 price zone by March 2020 and possibly trade around $13,000 by May 2020 as the price surges during this period should tend to be staged gradually.

 Bitcoin Price Prediction 2020

The Bitcoin price surged from $12 in November 2012 to $110 on 8 July 2013. The impact of the Bitcoin halving was effective right after the event, sending the price to rise by 1,000% in just seven months. Similarly, the Bitcoin price after the second halving event recorded a considerable growth from $650 during the event to about $772 in December 2016, which was 5 months after the event, and $907 in January 2017, which was 6 months after the event.

It is worth noting that the percentage change in price during and after the event may not necessarily be the same as the previous percentage change depending on several factors as well as the current value of the asset. The 2012 event led to a massive change in price compared to the 2016 event, and the 2020 event may possibly cause a lesser change in price compared to the 2016 event. I predict that the Bitcoin price may not overtake its all time high in 2020. The price may surge but at a slower pace like the price movement few months after the event in 2016. 

By December 2020, the Bitcoin price may trade as high as $17,000 and as low as $15,000 when we consider the price movement after the first six month of the event. In 2021, Bitcoin will possibly trade above its all-time high and push close to $30,000.

Related Topics:

➤China Capital outflows rose modestly in September Standard Chartered

Principles of Successful Trading. Core of trading by 4forexxx

Trading is the highest business you can do to get the best monthly income. But you can also lose much money. And here it comes to trading secrets, strategies or methods. Many trading experts are teaching their techniques, but not every method will get success with every trader.

 Trading methods come and go. Some of them are software-based, programmed from purportedly top-secret algorithms that claim to make profits with little or no involvement from the trader. Many of us would avoid the automation route in favor of chart patterns so extremely complex that by the time you've finally recognized them, the trading opportunity has come and gone.

There is one principle however, that is not only much more simple and easier to understand and to see on your charts, but which also stands the test of time as the highest probability route to success in trading. 

This principle is:

Buy the Dips in an Uptrend

Sell the Rallies in a Downtrend

Yes it's true and simple. And yet so many traders, even after hearing the advice, fail to apply it in their trading. Instead, they spend much of their time trying to find the latest indicator-driven strategy, or spending thousands of dollars on those fancy charting packages. Others would give in to the temptation of chasing a  non-trending market, for fear that they would end their trading session feeling they failed simply for not taking a trade.

If you want to make your trading achieve a success and also a whole lot easier, then make it your mission to buy the dips in an uptrend, and sell the rallies in a downtrend.

Firstly, note that we are trading with the trend, not against it. We buy in an uptrend and we sell in a downtrend. However, it does depend on the degree of the trend: the higher up you go (for example, to a Weekly chart) the longer the duration and the more distance covered in the significant counter-trend moves, which may in fact represent decent trading opportunity. But as a general rule of thumb - especially for day trading styles - buying the dips and selling the rallies means aligning ourselves with the market flow, the direction it is heading on the time-frame we're looking at, which is the path of least resistance.

If we do the opposite, for example, selling the rallies in an uptrend, we put ourselves in the direction of a corrective action, which can be a really bumpy ride. Corrective action tends to be unnatural, prone to whipsaws and market 'noise'. Its price targets are often much more difficult to hit, and less reliable. A trending market, by contrast, tends to move more smoothly and effortlessly towards its objective, more linear than overlapping in appearance. Putting ourselves on the right side of the trend allows us to take advantage of those really big moves that can be very profitable. 

As shown in the chart below (showing green arrows for buys, red arrows for sells), the other advantage of buying the dips and selling the rallies, is that it minimizes risk. In a trending market, a correction should only go so far. Once it's exhausted, the return to trend can be relatively quick - in other words, the market moves off the counter trend extreme with little hesitation. If we jump in at that point, then there is a much lower chance that the market will tum against us later, triggering a stop. This in turn allows precise entry points with limited risk to be set. 

In order to buy the dips and sell the rallies, we need an analytical approach that effectively comprises two  components. Firstly, we need a reliable method of identifying a market that is trending. It is going to be difficult to sell the rallies in a downtrend if we don't even know whether we are in a downtrend. Secondly, we need a reliable method of identifying the re-tracements (the dips in an uptrend or rallies in a downtrend): where they start, where they are likely to end, and some sense of certainty that they are merely a pullback. 

There is no point in selling a rally in a downtrend if that rally is expected to confirm a reversal. Therefore, we need to understand how to detect these important components of price action relatively unaided. This means that we need to start developing a general idea for what trending markets and re-tracements tend to look like on the chart with recourse only to price action itself.

Gold consolidates in a range, just above $1500 mark and Bulls testing the $1520 resistance

Gold refreshed daily tops during the early European session, albeit lacked any strong bullish conviction and remained well below three-week tops set on Friday.

Gold has been on the up of late, however meeting some pretty strong rejection in the 1520s, a barrier much protected by the bears on the way to the grand target.

The precious metal failed to capitalize on its good trading stats positive move on Friday, rather witnessed some selling near the $1520 region amid fading safe-haven demand. This coupled with a late pickup in the US Dollar demand exerted some additional downward pressure on the dollar-denominated Gold.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further at its upcoming meeting at the end of October (29-30 of October) helped the non-yielding yellow precious metal to regain some positive traction on Monday. However, a combination of negative forces kept a lid on any strong follow-through move up, at least for now.

The Greenback remained well supported by the ongoing recovery in the US Treasury bond yields, while the incoming positive trade-related headlines remained supportive of a generally risk-on mood and continued weighing on the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status.

In the latest development, the US Trade Representative's office said on Friday that the US and China have made progress in trade talks and have come close to finalizing parts of a “phase one” trade deal. The US officials have said they hope to sign a deal in mid-November.

In absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the commodity seems more likely to continue with its subdued/range-bound price action as investors start repositioning for this week's key event risk – the latest FOMC monetary policy update scheduled later this week.

Bears have been testing through the commitments of the bear's influence and trend-line resistance where it met the 1500 level, a psychologically important number that guarded a run towards the 1520 area guarding prospects for a test back to the key 1535 resistance target.

On failures to hold in the 1500s, bears, instead will be looking towards a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs level around 1460/70.

Related Posts:

➤ Why Trade Forex! Forex Vs. Stocks!

China Capital outflows rose modestly in September Standard Chartered

Chinese economy is at the focus, as the two world huge economies are in a war. Yes, it's called the trade war. Trade war and Brexit news are the most important news for all who are interested in money and business.

Today's News:

According to analysts at Standard Chartered, escalating trade tensions weighed on market sentiment even as a soft DXY supported the Chinese yuan (CNY) for most of September.

The US and China imposed additional tariffs on each other’s goods starting from 1 September. While talks between the two sides continue on the table, the date for high-level trade talks in October as was said and arranged was not confirmed until the last week of September. Against this backdrop, non-FDI capital outflows picked up to USD 19.7bn in September from a modest USD 11.5bn in August, according to the global estimate.

FX assets held by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) saw a small decline of USD 0.1bn, indicating that overall cross-border flows remained balanced. The merchandise trade surplus widened to USD 39.6bn in September after narrowing for two months, leading to a larger Q3-2019 surplus relative to Q2. Meanwhile, we estimate that the September services trade deficit shrank to USD 22.9bn.

According to FXS Forex news as they calculated that total net capital outflows (including net FDI inflows of USD 2.8bn) edged up by USD 7.3bn to USD 16.9bn in September / still modest compared with June (USD 31.8bn) and July (USD 20.3bn).

The latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) shows that net FX sales picked up in September and the willingness to convert FX receipts into CNY declined.

SAFE(State Administration of Foreign Exchange) recently announced new measures to facilitate cross-border trade and investment, including simplifying administrative procedures for FX payment and receipt and removing some payment restrictions on the capital account. The measures aim to improve the business environment and attract foreign capital.

Related Posts:

➤Trade War News: China Claims Trade Optimism, Requests Sanctions Against U.S.

➤Forex reserves fall to $3.092 trillion (China's September 2019)